A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
